The case: from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12005930
These are the charges: “Mr Assange is accused of having unprotected sex with a woman, identified only as Miss A, when she insisted he use a condom. He is also accused of having unprotected sex with another woman, Miss W, while she was asleep.”
So Julian Assange is accused of rape. But also, he is the founder of Wikileaks! An organisation which is disliked by many a government. Thus, many prominent people (Michael Moore, John Pilger, Naomi Wolf) have defended him and some have put up bail money to get him out of jail, because they believe he is the victim of a scheme by either the British/American/Swedish government, or possibly all of them working together, to prevent him from being able to carry on his work at Wkileaks.
From defenders of Assange:
Naomi Wolf: “Never in twenty-three years of reporting on and supporting victims of sexual assault around the world have I ever heard of a case of a man sought by two nations, and held in solitary confinement without bail in advance of being questioned — for any alleged rape, even the most brutal or easily proven.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/naomi-wolf/jaccuse-sweden-britain-an_b_795899.html
Michael Moore: “For those of you who think it’s wrong to support Julian Assange because of the sexual assault allegations he’s being held for, all I ask is that you not be naive about how the government works when it decides to go after its prey. Please — never, ever believe the “official story.”
http://michaelmoore.com/words/mike-friends-blog/why-im-posting-bail-money
I’m posting this here because I think everyone needs to know about this case, as an example of rape apology, rape culture, anda general confusion about what it is to be a rapist. (As if there was ever a lot of motivation to try and prosecute someone for a crime where there’s something like a 6% success rate, at least in the UK, and where your sexual habits, physical appearance, private past etc. will be examined in minute detail and wrung through the mill in questioning in court and in public for months on end. You’d have to pay me a lot of money to go through that.)
Just to clarify, the fact that these women have accused Assange of rape is one thing. The fact that the governments involved are taking such a hard line with him is another. That may well be politically motivated. That may well be a conspiracy of sorts to destroy Assange’s character.
And yet - this is not a good reason to bail Assange out and argue that he should not stand trial.
You know why? Because he still might be a rapist.
That’s right, the fact that he runs a good website doesn’t change that.
The fact that he has feminist supporters and famous supporters and public supporters on his side doesn’t change that. He might be a stand-up guy, he might be kind to kittens, he might be the world’s best boyfriend but that does not mean he is incapable of rape. No man can be categorically said to be incapable of rape, whoever he is.
(Please don’t get dumb now. I am not saying that every man is a rapist, or even that every man is capable of rape. What I’m saying is that a man’s ability to rape has NOTHING to do with public or personal opinion of him.)
As Wolf says, rape cases are very rarely treated with the same gravity as this. HOWEVER.
Does this mean the women concerned haven’t been raped? Ok, say the government is more likely to pursue the accused (for once). Say they have an interest in seeing him prosecuted.
DOES THE REACTION OF THE GOVERNMENT ON BEHALF OF THESE WOMEN HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH WHETHER THESE WOMEN ARE LYING ABOUT BEING RAPED?
Even with all the aspersions already being cast on the accusations, even with vocal supporters doing everything they can to suggest Assange has been wrongfully accused, they haven’t found shit to suggest that these women are being paid or coerced in any way to accuse him. Which, for any sane person, might lead to the question of why they are bothering to accuse him, what their incentive would be for lying, and whether they (not the government) are likely to benefit materially in any way from his conviction.
Which leads me to this.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/a-bayesian-take-on-julian-assange/
Wildly oversimplified, Bayesian analysis is a method for assessing whether an argument’s valid (true) or not. It goes like this:
If the evidence we gather increases the degree of belief in a hypothesis, then our hypothesis is confirmed (to some degree) by the evidence.
[Bayes' Rule/Theorem:[2]
Pr (A|e) = Pr(e|A)Pr(A)
Pr(e)
(A = hypothesis, e = evidence)
Probability of A (eg. degree of belief) is dependent on evidence gathered.]
- In English: we use the most relevant evidence available to confirm the truth of a statement.
This blog suggests that the most relevant piece of evidence (in assessing the truth of the statement ‘Assange raped two women’) we have is the fact that Assange is a political agitator.
Bollocks to that. That’s misdirection, that’s information that could confirm the statement ‘Assange is likely to be prosecuted for rape’, but it’s fuck all to do with whether he actually raped these two women or not. The truth of that will only emerge, if at all, after considering the testimonies of Assange and the two women involved.
Excuse the rant. Please let people know about this case, and join a real simple campaign on twitter if you have it:
http://tigerbeatdown.com/2010/12/15/mooreandme-on-dude-progressives-rape-apologism-and-the-little-guy/
^A much better summary of the issue.










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